On Tuesday, there was a condescending tone of denial in a Deutsche Welle article, written by a Bosnian Muslim and re-posted on B92 website, which, considering the outlets and the sources quoted, indicated to me that Dodik and Vasić are not merely talking crazy populism they tend to engage in every now and then. In fact, even with the notion of a violent overthrow of a government of a non-independent entity such as Serb Republic sounding so absurd and counter-intuitive, I'm inclined to regard such a prospect with fearful attention after Veran Matić's B92 jumps to mock it. Serb Republic has been under the threat of abolition since its establishment and Dodik has become a symbol of the resistance to Sarajevo's post-Dayton onslaught against the Serb entity. The Dayton Accords, which established Bosnia-Herzegovina and recognized Serb Republic as one of its two entities, had been violated consistently by the Office of High Representative and the Sarajevo central leadership prior to Dodik's second accession to power in 2006. Effectively decapitated through the political persecution of its leadership, the Serb Democrat Party couldn't withstand Sarajevo's march towards the abolition of Serb Republic in the first part of the last decade, but Dodik's return to power and his staunch and, oftentimes, abrasive attitude, has stabilized Serb Republic as a defender of the interests of Serbs west of Drina. He went so far to chastise and frown at Western envoys, and while a part of it was a show for the people and electoral rhetoric, in essence, that was the only way to repel the ever-oppressing imperial agents and their Sarajevo clients.
Considering the degree to which Dodik's burly presence, both political and personal, thwarted the abolition of Serb Republic efforts, it is understood why Western imperialist agents would want to overthrow him. One ridiculous element of the whole "spring" prospect is, as I said earlier, the fact that the Western imperialists would violently target the democratically elected government not of an independent state like Libya or Syria, or Yugoslavia in 2000, but of an entity within a state.
Dodik appears to be close to World Jewish Congress and, indirectly, to certain influencers in Israel, through his key advisor, a Holocaust survivor Arie Livne, as well as to Russian leadership and business circles. He recently closed the key energy deal with Russia's oil magnate Rashid Sardarov and the building of a new coal plant in the mining town of Ugljevik is underway. NIS (Serbia's largest oil corporation, owner by Russian Gazprom Neft) has bought Austrian OMV's gas stations throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina. He was close to Serbia's former president, Boris Tadić, but the current leadership, despite the advances he has made, has been cold towards him, with Ivica Dačić rejecting Dodik's call for a formulation of a united national political strategy. Although a staunch supporter of Serbia's refusal to recognize Kosovo's secession, Dodik repeated his proposal to divide Kosovo along ethnic lines, but that was ignored in Belgrade as well.
For Serb Republic, such an event would be a disaster on many levels.
First, any instability within Serb Republic, especially one caused and orchestrated from the outside, is an invitation for vultures to come and feast on it. Serbia, right across Drina, is a cautionary tale. The robbery and the colonization of Serbia that ensued following the Milošević ouster in 2000 highly exceeded the negative aspects of Milošević's rule, however just his removal appeared to be at the time. At the time, Serbs that bulldozed Milošević out of power were not aware that CIA and NED sponsored their "revolution." A similar ouster of Dodik would almost certainly signal to Sarajevo that it is time to go for Serb Republic's jugular. I'm not even saying that no one but Dodik can secure the survival of Serb Republic, only that no foreign-sponsored overthrow of a people's choice can ever be grounded in a motivation benevolent to Serb Republic and the Serbian people. Or, from another angle, if the likes of those who conduct "springs" are going for Dodik's head, he must be doing something good for Serb Republic that its traditional, lurking enemies desire to end.
Third, SDS, should it be drawn into a violent battle against Dodik on behalf of Western imperialists, must remember it is a party of Radovan Karadžić, because no matter what, its enemies will always remember this and if they pardon it for a short term co-optation, they will never forgive it. It must remember that the real enemy is in Sarajevo and not in Banja Luka and it must look for ways to bring Dodik to a position of cooperation for the benefit of Serb Republic. It appears Bosić is well aware of this and that's a positive.
Petar Luković, a renowned anti-Serb propagandist from Belgrade, might as well be right when he mocked Dodik and his "conspiratorial" sentiments for Deutsche Welle and dismissed it as rhetoric and even a straw Dodik is grabbing onto to preserve his power. Dodik could just be playing mind games with the people. Sure, it's possible, but since Luković called it, I doubt it. I wasn't even going to rush into commenting on Dodik's "conspiratorial" sentiments if I didn't see Luković's "analysis," in which he curiously, and I'd say, nervously, pokes fun at someone even talking about such outlandish propositions such as CIA and Vatican meddling, foreign-financed "independent" media etc. Yeah, sure, it is preposterous to think that ever happens...